Survey USA (8/11-12, 718 LVs, July in parentheses):
Gregiore: 50% (49)
Rossi: 48% (46)
One week before the “beauty contest,” Rossi has closed the gap a bit further. This is going to be very close, and I think who finishes first on the 19th will win in November. Gregoire just can’t put the race away. No surprises in the internals this time (shock!) but Rossi leads 50-44 among independents and leads 51-47 among the 42% who think the economy is the most important issue.
Also of note:
Obama’s lead in the state is down to 51-44, a nine point drop from last month.
I don’t see why it would matter all that much who wins the primary. There probably won’t be as high of turnout in the primary as there will be come November. I can definately see Rossi winning the primary by a small amount due to low turnout and then losing by a good margin in November when turnout is high. Aside from bragging rights which most voters don’t keep up with the first round shouldn’t have a big impact in the end.
General Election in November than in the Primary in Aug. This means that Rossi is in pretty poor shape if he doesn’t get more votes than Gregoire but not necessarily the reverse. I would be concerned if she is more than 5 points behind Rossi but that may just mean that those R’s who resent the votes being counted in 2004 were more motivated to turn out in the primary and that Rossi made an extra effort.
This is soooo good. Go Rossi.